8 billion in fines for Volkswagen in 2025, 2 billion for Renault and almost as much for Stellantis. This is the result of simulations by a large company specializing in the automotive sector, which wishes to remain anonymous. A huge invoice sent by the European Commission to producers that they would not sell enough electric cars in 2025 which would be higher than the 7.3 billion euros of net profit achieved in the first half of 2024 by the German group and the 1.3 billion achieved in the same period by Renault. However, the potential fine imposed by Brussels on producers next year would represent only 35% of the half-yearly net profit. from the Franco-Italian-American manufacturer. Still.
These three manufacturers are not the only ones affected. For the entire automotive industry, Brussels has foreseen fines of up to 15 billion euros, according to Renault CEO Luca De Meo. Even more than 50 billion between 2025 and 2029, according to the median projection of Alix Partners. Alexandre Marian, associate director of the consultant, believes that “ more than half of the producers will pay these fines ».
Chinese manufacturers exempted
Reduce average CO emissions2 of their new vehicles, Renault and Stellantis certainly hope to sell as many electric vehicles as possible, especially R5Citroënë-C3 et T01 jump engine in the last quarter. But I’m not sure if this really reduces the bill, while deliveries of these new products are just beginning. And that the Leapmotor did not get (in France) the expected bonus.
Paradox: the Chinese will be exempt from these CO fines2since they decided to return to Europe mainly with… electric cars! The height. “ We are in the worst situation », summarizes Luc Chatel, particularly pessimistic about the future of the French automotive sector. The president of the PFA (French automotive platform) still has questions. To avoid sanctions” Should manufacturers buy carbon allowances from Chinese brands or from Tesla, which we will then subsidize? Should we reduce the production of thermal cars to lower average CO2 emissions?2 of each producer, thus accentuating the fall of the market? “. A perfect squaring of the circle.
Great efforts to be made
Manufacturers must collectively reduce average annual emissions from their new cars to 93.6 grams per kilometer in 2025 for passenger cars. Against 116 g/km so far. For example, a very popular compact SUV Dacia Duster today it emits from 124 to 135 grams in the thermal version, a small Dacia Sandero around 120, a hybrid Renault Clio E-Tech 95, an electric Mégane zero! But the latter sells very poorly… A further reduction to 49.5 g/km is expected for 2030. Before theoretically reaching zero grams in 2035Brussels has decided to ban the sale of all new petrol, diesel, hybrid and even plug-in hybrid vehicles from this date.
Manufacturers whose emissions exceed the annual target will then have to pay an excess emissions penalty, estimated at 95 euros per gram per kilometer exceeded for each new vehicle. And the bills add up quickly! To avoid sanctions in 2025, the director of Citroën Thierry Koskas has calculated that it should sell 25% of its vehicles with zero-emission electric vehicles. Against 9% last year. A nice leap. To avoid paying fines, Renault estimates that electric cars should account for between 20 and 21 percent of its total volumes in Europe next year. It is therefore necessary to more than double sales compared to 2023. A real challenge.
60% of investments
« We are not there, this is the reality » he insists Luca De Meo. However, the diamond company says it has dedicated 60% of its research and development investments to electric models. The general director of Renault, also president of the Association of European Automobile Manufacturers (ACEA), suddenly warns about these European rules which will come into force on 1AND January 2025 and requires greater flexibility. The Association clearly wants a postponement of the calendar. But not all manufacturers agree, starting with Carlos Tavares, who left Acea. “ I’m not in favor of changing the rules. I have a regulatory framework, I respect it. Late builders are cicadas “he said recently Challenges the leader of Stellantis. Even if this also means paying fines.
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One problem remains with this forced electrification of the vehicle fleet: customers don’t really want it. Electric powertrains accounted for just 12.6% of new car registrations in the EU in the first nine months of 2024, compared to 13.9% in the whole of 2023. Even as manufacturers launch new models at more affordable prices, Alix Partners is counting on a relatively slow evolution in electricity penetration. A trajectory that “does not allow the objectives to be achieved”, indicates associate director Alexandre Marian.